The Mariners are Scary and the Numbers (Kinda) show that.

By Gordon Liang

12/3/2021

By most metrics, the Seattle Mariners are not a very impressive team. Their 2021 run differential was ridiculed to the extent where they coined “Fun Differential” as their motto in acknowledgement of how low it was. Their team .308 xwOBA was tied with the Tigers at 22nd. They really had no strengths analytically but still managed to take all 162 games before finally getting eliminated from playoff contention. No one metric really projects the Mariners to replicate their near-magical 2021 run but the 90-win team is still a very real threat that’s poised to make huge additions and will certainly give the reigning division champions a run for their money.

Analytics are salient to today’s era of baseball. But while they tell a huge part of the story, much is left unsaid. Analytics are like puzzle pieces. They’re all you need to tell the story but if they’re not put together, you’ll see nothing.

The most obvious flaw in using last year’s analytics is that the Mariners didn’t have two key outfielders in 2021 that they’ll be expecting to have in 2022. Kyle Lewis, the 2020 American League Rookie of the Year, missed a huge chunk of the season due to an injury and though he wasn’t having an impressive year, posting a 107 wRC+, his two earlier seasons along with his 2021 xwOBA show that he’ll be back to an around 120 wRC+ player in 2022. The biggest impact that had zero effect on 2021 is top-prospect Julio Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been an absolute monster in the minor leagues. If you throw the ball to him, you’re making a mistake. Rodriguez’s numbers have been off the charts at every level. There is not one season and level where Rodriguez has a wRC+ below 145. If you remove the 2019 he had in Single-A, then change that 145 to a 160. This dude will be an issue for any and all major league pitchers. I fully expect him to give the Mariners their second rookie of the year in three seasons in 2021 while posting a wRC+ from around 130 to 145.

A less obvious puzzle piece that hasn’t been put together is Jarred Kelenic. Kelenic had a disappointing rookie season which included a demotion, a 28.1% strikeout rate and an anticlimactic 73 wRC+. Kelenic talked a lot before the 2021 season. After the Mariners announced that Kelenic will not be on the Opening Day roster, he claimed that he was being kept in the minors for not signing an extension.

“There’s no question that if [Kelenic] signed that contract, he would have been in the big leagues," Kelenic’s agent Brodie Scoffield told USA Today.

Mariners’ general manager Jerry Dipoto insisted that Kelenic was kept off the major league roster for developmental reasons. Kelenic had the opportunity to prove Dipoto wrong when he got called up on May 13th of this year but he posted a 10 wRC+ in his first 23 games before getting sent back down. His struggles continued and he holistically had a horrible first glimpse of the majors but he’s not the first top prospect to have a horrible start.

Astros’ Kyle Tucker was highly touted for a very long time. So much so to the extent where former-Astros’ general manager Jeff Luhnow refused to offer him in any trade including three separate trades that brought Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke to Houston. When Tucker was first called up, Astros fans were more than eager to watch him live up to the hype. I had dreams of catching his first homerun at then-AT&T Park. I never stood a chance.

Like Kelenic, Tucker was optioned to the minors after a slow start. He hit at a 33 wRC+ in his first 16 games and was playing in the minors when the Astros came to San Francisco. Tucker finished this season as a top-ten hitter in baseball and led the best offense in baseball in wRC+.

Kelenic was not only unlucky in 2021, finishing with an xwOBA 40 points higher than his actual wOBA, but also had a strong finish to the season. He posted a 136 wRC+ in his last 28 games. When you factor in the minor league numbers, bad luck and strong finish, you get a much better glimpse of Kelenic’s true talent which you’re bound to see in 2022. I give 2022 Kelenic an absolute floor of 115 wRC+ but if I were to guess, he’s likely floating around the 125’s next season. He’s also a candidate to just break out completely next season and get up to the 140’s but let’s be safe with our assumptions.

Add a true-talent Kelenic to an outfield expecting to see Lewis and Rodriguez and you may be seeing the best outfield in baseball: all basically homegrown (Kelenic was drafted by the Mets but spent more time in the Mariners farm than the Mets’)! Not to mention Mitch Haniger too.

On top of potentially having the best outfield in baseball, the Mariners have some scary pitching. Logan Gilbert was another prospect that the team anticipated this year and aside from his ERA, there’s no reason to believe that Gilbert will be anything but solid, if not elite. He’s never touched a Fielder-Independent-Pitching (FIP) above two in the minors and his Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) was well below four all season. Luck never actually balances out but if we were in a perfect world, I’d assume Gilbert would have an ERA around 3.2 to 3.7 next year.

The addition of Robbie Ray (and the loss of Yusei Kikuchi) makes the Mariner’s staff even scarier. Yes, Ray lucked his way into a Cy Young award this year but his peripherals were still impressive (just not as impressive as Cole’s). Ray’s 3.21 SIERA is top-tier and with Ray and Gilbert leading the rotation and an elite bullpen that was seventh in SIERA and fourth in fWAR, the Mariners are already much better off than the Astros in the pitching department.

Then after looking at what they have in store right now, we can give good estimates of what they can still get done before the season starts (or even at the deadline). Their outfield is already stacked as aforementioned which leaves Taylor Tramell as a big trade piece but with a slowly descending price. Trammell was a top 20 prospect by both MLB and Baseball Prospectus’ accounts before 2019 but descended the rankings before 2020 before getting called up in 2021. The former-first-rounder shined in the 2018 Future’s Game but has since then seen a massive decline. He’s not the same prospect that was involved in the Trevor Bauer trade but the Mariners can still salvage the trade value he has as they seek to find a third-baseman.

The Mariners recently acquired Adam Frazier, who’ll be a free agent after 2022 and has shown no indications of breaking out, so the Mariners may try to flip him along with Trammell or instead sell utility infielder Abraham Toro, who’s slightly worse but has valuable control time, with Trammell. Despite still hitting below league-average in Seattle, Toro’s value has increased significantly since the Kendall Graveman trade and Dipoto has shown time and time again that he’s an open bargain. Edwin Diaz was (and still is) one of baseball’s best relievers when Dipoto decided to ship him away for a salary dump and multiple prospects (the most notable being Kelenic). Trading away Toro and Trammell for a solid third-baseman or starting pitcher is well within Dipoto’s range of possibilities.

The Mariners still have a lot of money to spend after declining Kyle Seager’s option and being fortunate with Kikuchi opting out of his. Though most free-agents are signed, some really big names still remain unemployed. Carlos Correa, who was previously open to playing third-base, is out there and if Dipoto is cashing in on 2022, Correa makes that whole lineup complete. I don’t think the Mariners really have a chance at Correa but they’re certainly in a better position than most would think. Kris Bryant is another name that can fill the hot corner. Heck, Dipoto recently told the public that they’ll see Toro taking time in the outfield so if that’s the case, why not sign Nicholas Castellanos? Castellanos has plenty of experience at the hot corner under his belt. Dipoto is a mad man who’s one splash from being the favorites in the division.

Another free agent to consider is Texas-native Clayton Kershaw. Wouldn’t Kershaw love to tear down the Astros? If so, the Mariners are his best bet. Adding Kershaw would give the Mariners three-at-least-solid starters in the rotation with an incredible bullpen to back them up.

I threw around a lot of big names just now. None of whom are actually Mariners as it stands now. Without them, the Mariners are still a great team and will compete for the division. I expect the Mariners to make at least one more trade and signing before the 2022 season that puts them over the top but it could also just not happen. It’s easy to estimate Kelenic, Rodriguez and Lewis’ 2022 seasons because their history speaks for itself but Dipoto is an unpredictable manager and that’s what makes him one of baseball’s best. Without another move, the Mariners are in a good spot for the division (I’d say 40-60) and with one, the Mariner’s are in a great spot (55-45).

The 2021 Mariners had many holes in their team but still managed to nearly secure a playoff spot. Most of those holes will fix themselves and with one more big signing, the Mariners could possibly have a lineup that rivals the Astros’. With Correa and key bullpen pieces likely leaving Houston, the Astros are worse in 2022 than they were in 2021 while the Mariners are improving. So no, the analytics don’t show that the 2021 Mariners were impressive because they weren’t. The 2021 Mariners showed you the pieces that are needed. When those pieces fall into place as everyone should expect them to in 2022, this division is a truly coin toss between the two.