The Astros lost. What now?

Gordon Liang

11/3/2021

After 162 long, emotional and controversial games, the Houston Astros have finally reached the finish line. Their finish line that is. They fell two games short of the ultimate finish line that is a second World Series title. The Astros made a valiant effort in their shot at redemption. After being exposed for their weakness in the bullpen, general manager James Click reshuffled the options for Dusty Baker with key acquisitions of Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton and Yimi Garcia. The bullpen played a crucial role in getting the Astros where they were and had the offense not fallen asleep, the bullpen may have been enough to carry the Astros to their second championship in franchise history.

Regardless, what could’ve been didn’t happen. The Atlanta Braves are your 2021 World Series Champions. Myles Straw will rely on the Indians for a ring. Zack Greinke will retire without a ring in all likelihood. Kendall Graveman will have options and time as he searches for his first.

This offseason has been both dreaded and anticipated for the Astros. On one hand, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will take over 50 million dollars off the books (Greinke will still be paid deferred money until 2026 according to Spotrac). On the other, the Astros need to negotiate with top free agents Carlos Correa and Kendall Graveman. This isn’t Graveman’s first time as a free agent but 2021 was by far his best year so, unlike previous years, he has options. Brooks Raley, Yimi Garcia and Marwin Gonzalez are the other free agents out of Houston this year so the front office won’t have much ground to cover and if they play their budget correctly, can definitely bring a stronger Astros roster into the 2022 season.

Don’t “Pay The Man”

The talk of all year for Astros fans has been Correa’s impending free agency. One day Correa wants to be an Astro for life, and the other, he wants to live on the East Coast. As the season progressed, the chances of his return diminished. Correa is a great shortstop coming off possibly the best season of his career. The better he played, the higher his price tag became. With his desire for a long-term contract, the chances of an extension diminished with every hit, strong throw and clutch moment he had.

As much as Houstonians hate to accept it, there’s no realistic possibility where Correa returns to the Astros. Correa either walks or signs a lengthy bulky contract that burdens the Astros for years to come. Baseball is a team sport and Correa is a man of great talent but he’s not worth nine men of talent. Outfield stars Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez hit free agency in 2026 while Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman see their contracts end in 2025. Tucker and Alvarez are indispensable and if Correa signs a long extension here, it’ll prove to be a roadblock come 2026.

As for the shortstop position, Click and Baker (should Baker return) have many options. Bregman played shortstop in college as well as in 2019 when Correa was out due to injury. He doesn’t have the best defensive stats at shortstop but if he can find his bat again, Aledmys Diaz (who was one of baseball’s best defenders this year) can start at the hot corner to balance out Bregman’s slight lack of range.

The second option lies in Jeremy Pena who’ll probably find himself on the roster regardless of whether Diaz takes third base or not. Pena has been incredibly productive in his minor league career posting a 146 wRC+ in 43 Advanced-A games in 2019 and a 126 wRC+ in 30 Triple-A games this year. Of course, the big leagues are a whole different beast but that doesn’t discredit the numbers he’s put up at the minor league level. The Astros love bringing up new prospects. They had a Rookie of the Year finalist in their last two years and are poised for a third straight finalist in Luis Garcia this year. The Astros farm system doesn't have the biggest names and the lack of a first and second-round pick in 2020 and 2021 didn’t help but they have arguably the best development system in baseball and can develop guys to cover in Correa’s absence.

Of course, the best option would be to just re-sign Correa to a reasonable contract but what’s reasonable to Click will be unreasonable to Correa and vice versa. Click isn’t Jeff Luhnow. Click isn’t Andrew Friedman. Click isn’t Brian Cashman. Click started in the Rays front office and you can teach an old dog new tricks but they won’t forget the old ones. Click won’t overpay a star if he doesn’t have to and he doesn’t have to pay Correa.

Dig the American League’s Grave

Graveman was the most notable deadline acquisition for the Astros. It was unique in so many ways. The trade pieces simply had to walk across the field and they were in their new dugouts. Abraham Toro, who was part of the Mariners’ return, hit a homerun in his first at-bat against his former team. Most importantly, it showed the Astros fan base that they were in it to win this season. Graveman was the winning pitcher the night before the trade… he won the game as a Mariner… after the Astros had led by seven runs at one point in the game. The bullpen was already an obvious issue that needed to be addressed and if it wasn’t the front office’s top priority before the game, it certainly was now.

Graveman entered the Astros with a .82 ERA and though his performance wasn’t the same as it was with Seattle, he was still one of baseball’s best relievers. Graveman was a staple of the Astros’ 7-8-9th inning combination after the deadline. His presence was immediately felt in the clubhouse and he’ll be pursued by many teams this offseason including the Mariners who just freed up some budget by declining Kyle Seager’s club option and with Yusei Kikuchi surprisingly declining his player option.

If the Astros want to continue their success, it starts with making sure their bullpen doesn’t revert to before. Graveman started the chain of acquisitions for Houston in the deadline and hopefully, he starts the chain of signings this offseason. Losing Graveman will be a huge loss for the Astros who don’t have pitching prospects to replace his talent like they do with Correa. Re-signing Graveman is a must for the Astros and with relievers tending to cost less, the Astros have no excuse not to.

Four Card Monte?

Many remember the Graveman trade as a one for one trade. Houston gets Graveman, Seattle gets Toro. But that wasn’t the case at all. The Mariners also acquired Joe Smith and the Astros acquired Rafael Montero. The Astros highly valued Montero and during trade talks, they made sure that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto understood that.

“They wanted Montero,” Dipoto said via ESPN when detailing the behind-the-scenes of Houston’s blockbuster trade.

Montero may have been highly valued by the Astros but he couldn’t have left faster for the Mariners. They designated Montero for assignment before the trade had been made meaning that if the front offices couldn’t find an agreement soon, a wrench may have been thrown in the whole trade.

“I hated the timing of the trade with Graveman,” Dipoto explained, “The piece that gets lost in the wash that many, including our players, just won’t understand is that Rafael Montero was actually part of that trade… Rafael Montero had to be traded by Monday [August first]. Otherwise, he’d have to go on waivers the following day and it was just too good an opportunity to pass up for us.”

Like Correa, the approach to Montero is non-action. Montero still has one year of team control and will be in Astros threads next season. Montero had a limited sample size as an Astro as his season was cut short due to injury but when he was hurling for the orange wagon, he was shoving. He hurled six shutout innings as an Astro striking out five of the 21 batters he faced.

Montero wasn’t randomly designated for assignment by the Mariners. His numbers outside of the Astros ballclub weren’t great so the caveat behind Montero is a big one. Six scoreless innings don’t wipe away the 282.1 innings of 5.29 ERA baseball he carried in his career heading into the trade. Montero has potential but also a chip on his shoulder. His repertoire and delivery are electric and if utilizes it correctly, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Montero will seek to break through this year after recovering from injury but he will not get the help of Former Astros pitching coach Brent Strom anymore as Strom announced after the World Series that he will not return as a major league pitching coach. If Graveman re-signs and Montero reaches his potential, a Stanek-Montero-Graveman-Pressly bullpen coupled with Phil Maton as a cherry on top will be a league-wide fear.

Collect the Arm Barn Stones

More is better, right? Not always but the Astros have a lot of money to spend this offseason even if they want to stay below luxury so why not go crazy? What’s crazier than adding an elite reliever to a bullpen already with two elite relievers and two near-elite relievers? Well, the Astros have that ability this offseason with Raisel Iglesias on the market. Iglesias has been very underlooked this season but don’t get it twisted, Iglesias is one of baseball’s best.

Iglesias posted a 2.06 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2021. Only one qualified reliever had a lower SIERA: last year’s most coveted free agent reliever Liam Hendriks. The chances of actually signing Iglesias are slime but still plausible. The Astros have the money and the ability to offer Iglesias a chance at a ring but not the need. Their bullpen already proved to be sufficient and more this October so adding improvements like Iglesias will be like adding water to a lake. It’ll be fun to watch and an absolute dream come true for Astros fans but in all reality, collecting the last stone of the Arm Barn Gauntlet won’t be a priority for Click and the front office.

Start Strong, Finish Strong

The Atlanta Braves do not have a strong offense in any way. Their team total of 98 wRC+ was tied for 12th in the league. The Astros on the other hand had the best offense in baseball by far. Their wRC+ was ranked first in baseball, they were the only team with a contact percentage above 80 and a strikeout percentage below 20. One of these teams scored 30 runs in the World Series and the other scored 20. Knowing just this information, you’d think the Astros were the team that scored 30 but they were not. The key to the World Series ended up being the starting pitching and the Astros simply did not have that.

The Astros' starters allowed 16 runs in 20 innings during the World Series. Had Greinke and Urquidy not had heroic outings, the series would have ended far sooner than it did. The best offense in baseball couldn’t figure out the Braves’ rotation but the Braves figured out the Astros’. The Astros were a better offense and defense but at the end of the season, it was pitching that decided who would win the trophy.

Should Correa leave, the shortstop hole will patch itself enough for the offense to survive. Should Graveman leave, the Astros’ bullpen will have a hole that the front office needs to fix but Click will find a way to fix it. The rotation has been a weak suit for the Astros despite their starters posting the fifth-lowest ERA in 2021. For a casual, the rotation was great and just simply fell apart at the wrong time. For the stat nerds, the Astros rotation simply ran out of luck. Their SIERA this year was ranked 14th in the league, a huge decrease from their ERA rank. They were due for collapse and October exposed them.

Click has his hands full with the rotation but he also has options. Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman are both going to lead the way in this year’s starting pitching free-agent class. Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer are also free agents but despite pitching fantastically this season, both of them have aged significantly and are not likely to be pursued by the Astros. As aforementioned, Strom will not be coaching the staff in 2022 so signing guys like Kevin Gausman, who has the stuff and would probably evolve under Strom’s belt, may not be as smart of an idea this year as it was in previous years.

Another obvious choice for the Astros is Carlos Rodon who will be recovering from a shoulder injury. Rodon is incredibly talented and had himself a career year this year but Houston is unlikely to be high on his list of preferred destinations.

“It’s hard to see [the foreign substance reinforcement] when you’re giving out ten-game suspensions for cheating, but you give the Astros no suspensions at all,” Rodon said in June of 2021.

Rodon hasn’t made many friends in Houston with that statement and the two dominant outings he put up against the Astros in the regular season. The Astros got the last laugh though as they handed Rodon the loss in game four of the ALDS to send Rodon into the offseason where he’s spent the month waiting for the Astros to lose in the World Series and start his free-agent campaign. Rodon would be an incredible addition to the rotation that has just one southpaw but he’s unlikely to be eager to head to Houston and like every other elite arm, he has options.