The Astros Desperately Need to Replenish Their Farm.

By: Gordon Liang

1/31/2022

When it comes to producing homegrown talent, no team has done better than the Astros over the past decade. Over the past ten years, the Astros have brought up George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman amongst other elite names. The talent they brought up played at such a high level that even the most ardent Astros haters end up begging them to join their team when they hit free agency. And who wouldn’t want a top two centerfielder? The Blue Jays certainly did. Who wouldn’t want a top two shortstop? The Dodgers and Yankees certainly do.

Much of the credit must be acquiesced to the three excruciating 100-loss seasons the Astros went through. Through high draft picks, the Astros were able to take huge bats like Correa, Bregman, Springer and Kyle Tucker. But a lot of credit belongs to the developmental system the Astros have going. Lower draft picks like Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers have played defense at the highest level in their short time as a major leaguer. International free agent Jose Altuve, who was told he was too short to play baseball, transformed himself into an MVP and consistent top five second baseman. Before Yordan Alvarez even got a game under his belt as a Dodger, Former General Manager Jeff Luhnow snatched him away. The Astros’ development system is undoubtedly one of the best in the league but the system hasn’t had much to work on as of late.

After cashing in on all of their top prospects in 2019, the Astros had a job to do: refill and continue your reign. That plan was essentially thrown out the window when the cheating scandal broke out. Along with a five-million dollar fine (the largest fine in baseball history) the Astros were served with the loss of a first and second-round draft pick for two consecutive years. With Springer having left last year and Correa expected to leave this year, the fans are searching for prospects to anticipate. Despite Astros Twitter doing a fairly good job at rallying for Jeremy Pena and Jose Siri this offseason, the truth is their numbers, once you consider the level of play, aren’t ones to expand your irises for.

Both Siri and Pena participated in the Dominican Winter League this season and both had their moments. Pena destroyed a pitch off Mariners pitcher Yohan Ramirez and threw his bat to hype up his dugout. Siri’s moment had a more clutch element to it. Down two with two on and two out in the top of the ninth, Siri hit a missile to put his team in the lead in game one of the championship series. Regardless, both Siri and Pena posted around an average OPS. Siri’s winter league OPS was slightly below the MLB-Average OPS in 2021 and Pena’s winter league OPS was slightly above that.

For a team like the Astros who’ve played baseball at the highest level for years now, it’s tough to replace free agents without getting worse holistically. But the Astros have slightly held on for now, continuing to make the ALCS despite the losses of Springer and Gerrit Cole. The team still saw decline from 2019 in a shortened 2020 season but saw improvements in 2021 as they went back to the World Series to become prey to yet another seemingly-lackluster NL East team. After a second year ranked as the 29th farm system, the Astros are yearning for surprise breakouts from their prospects. Meyers and McCormick have both shown promise and certainly can see themselves play as top 10 centerfielders but that would require a 20-point jump in wRC+ for either man. Meyers was raking against left-handed pitchers last year posting a 144 wRC+ against southpaws but his plate appearances against right-handed pitchers didn’t bear much production (despite his plate discipline being better).

Looking at the Astros’ farm system, it’s difficult to see how anyone thinks the team was left unpunished especially given the timing and how the Astros obviously weren’t the only team that cheated but were the only team punished. With every other AL West team not named the Oakland Athletics improving with splash signings this offseason and the Astros seemingly unwilling to keep their players, now would be a great time to give and take. Obviously the Astros shouldn’t start a rebuild as they’re still the top dogs in the American League even if Correa leaves. But they need to consider exchanging depth for the future.

The approach now for Houston should be similar to that of the Myles Straw trade back at the trade deadline. The trade sent Straw to Cleveland in return for frisbee thrower Phil Maton and catching prospect Yainer Diaz. Straw provided elite defense and speed with team control for a rebuilding Cleveland organization. Maton showed high potential with his then-league-leading whiff% and came with one extra year of team control. Diaz was the underrated part of the trade. He’s coming off a monster season in the minors and provides the Astros promise in a position that’s currently very weak for the Astros. Even after the trade, the Astros find themselves with three fairly even centerfielders. General Manager James Click has enough promising depth in centerfield to make another trade to potentially snag themselves another prospect even though Meyers and Siri both have six years of team control.

The one exception to this mentality should be if Click decides to test out the black market in Oakland. The Athletics were rumored to be shopping star first baseman Matt Olson around along with pitchers Frankie Montas, Chris Bassit and Sean Manaea. With Yuli Gurriel heading towards the latter end of his career and being on the last year of his contract in 2022, Olson and his two years of team control may appeal as a good contingency plan for Gurriel in case Father Time catches up next year and as a nice preview year in 2023 when Gurriel likely won’t be playing for the Astros anymore. Even then, given that the Astros will be all out of solid-tier prospects by then, Click should seek to acquire one of the starting pitchers as well if the Astros were to consider an Olson trade. In which case, Jose Urquidy will be a fitting candidate to be in the return as he doesn’t come with as much control but enough to provide his value.

If Click expectedly doesn’t pursue a trade with Oakland for Olson then the best route for Houston to turn to is to trade for prospects of their own. With a compensation pick coming if Correa leaves and the Astros finally getting a say in the first and second round, two impactful trades should put Houston in a good spot to reload their farm.