Sending Brandon Nimmo to Houston Makes too much Sense.

Gordon Liang

12/25/2021

Early into the offseason, the Astros were rumored to be big pursuants of Starling Marte. The former-Athletic just came off his best season, posting career-highs in wRC+, On-base percentage and BsR (a baserunning metric by FanGraphs) among other metrics. His performance in Miami was so impressive that the Athletics, who were in playoff contention at the time, forfeited a young Jesus Luzardo in exchange for half a season of Marte. The rumors were quickly shot down as Marte signed with the New York Mets to complete a trio of signings on November 26th of this year.

The signing didn’t really hurt the Astros, however, as their centerfielders combined for the second-highest FanGraphs WAR in 2021 primarily due to elite defensive showcases. But with Marte and Mark Canha (who also signed on November 26th) heading to the Queens, the Mets suddenly find themselves with more flexibility. The Mets’ outfield quartet now consists of Marte, Canha, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith. The quartet has the potential to be the best outfield in baseball but also has its question marks. Smith, who had a phenomenal 2019-2020 posting a 159 wRC+ in 139 games during the span, disappointed last year. After producing at a measly 88 wRC+ last year, Smith stands to be the odd one on the bench heading into 2022 but Nimmo’s injury history will keep Smith on his toes throughout the season.

Nimmo, who is expected to move to right field despite being better than Marte in nearly every facet of baseball, brings with himself a question mark just as big as Smith’s. He is possibly baseball’s most underrated centerfielder but it’s difficult to make a name for yourself when you’re spending a big part of your season on the Injured List. From 2019-2021, Nimmo missed 168 games but when he played, he impressed. Regardless of his missed time, his value is there but if the Mets are paying to play this year, they may not be able to afford another Nimmo injury.

This is where the Astros come in. The Astros debuted three different centerfielders this year: Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Jose Siri. McCormick’s defense has skyrocketed to the top of the league’s leaderboards and for the most part, he’s kept himself healthy. With rumors that the Mets are seeking pitching help, sending McCormick and right-handed pitcher Peter Solomon to the Mets for Nimmo seems like a perfect fit.

Nimmo is heading into his last season of team control and it would surprise nobody if that season was cut short and suddenly the star is free to sign anywhere. McCormick, on the other hand, brings himself five years of team control and a higher slugging percentage. (Nimmo’s strength is his plate discipline and high walk rate). Solomon, who won Pitcher of the Year in AAA-West this year, doesn’t have as much service time so he’ll bring six years of control along with him.

The biggest fit to the puzzle is Nimmo’s injury history. While the Mets can’t afford to miss a lot of time with Nimmo, the Astros (should they acquire him) can. In fact, resting stars isn’t a new concept to the Astros. Under the Astros, Nimmo can be used gingerly and platoon with Meyers (who slugged a 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers last year) to prevent injuries. This way, the Astros get their slugger in centerfield, Nimmo is used appropriately without hurting the team he’s on and the Mets improve their pitching staff while still being in a very good position in regards to the outfield.

McCormick fits amazingly well with the Mets. While Nimmo would’ve been a natural centerfielder moving to the corner, McCormick is a natural corner outfielder who can remain in his natural position as a Met. McCormick has the potential to be better than Nimmo and he has the time to get there as a Met. The difference between the two offensively is pretty significant but the issue doesn’t lie in hitting the ball, McCormick has the better slugging percentage. The issue lies in taking bad pitches and drawing your walks. When you consider that McCormick just finished his first year as a major-leaguer, you’ll be optimistic that he’ll see pitches better in the near future and will naturally see his on-base percentage (OBP) rise. It also doesn’t help that hitters tend to have trouble seeing pitches in Houston. Baseball’s best player has had issues of his own with the fern batter’s eye in Houston.

“I thought [the pitch] was a slider,” Mike Trout told his colleagues after getting hit with a fastball in the strike zone early into the season.

With experience and a better view of the pitches, McCormick is bound to boost his OBP. Once that happens, he’ll have the higher OPS while being a better defender. The upside of McCormick is too much for any sane general manager to pass up on while a healthy Nimmo-Meyers platoon possibility is too fitting for James Click to disregard. Oh and don’t forget Peter Solomon. If the Mets want pitching and the Astros want a star centerfielder, McCormick and Solomon in exchange for Nimmo is a no-brainer for both parties.