Houston's Unsung Hero: the Astros Development System

Gordon Liang

11/8/2021

When George Springer left, many Astros fans were left curious about how the team would make up for such a loss. One season later, Springer has spent most of his time on the Injured List and the Astros? Their centerfielders combined for the second most centerfielder’s fWAR in baseball. With the defense of Myles Straw, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, the Astros have quietly taken pride in producing some of baseball’s best outfield gloves.

When Gerrit Cole left in 2019 and Justin Verlander got hurt early in 2020, fans doubted that the development system could make up for losing the two best pitchers in 2019. They were right to do so. The pitching staff has yet to come anywhere near the most feared rotation in 2019. Yet, they haven’t been exceptionally horrible. The Astros find themselves with a third consecutive AL Rookie of the Year finalist in starting pitcher Luis Garcia after pitcher Cristian Javier was a finalist in 2020. In dire need of talent to mend the broken 2019 roster, the farm system that keeps on giving pulled themselves another rabbit out of nowhere.

With Carlos Correa bound to head to a new team this offseason, fans again are doubting the Astros’ development system and reasonably so. Correa ended his team control with the Astros on a high note. The former first-overall pick pulled through yet again leading all position players in bWAR with his spectacular defense and productive offense. His 134 wRC+ and 12 Outs Above Average (OAA) will certainly be sought after by teams willing to handicap their payrolls down the line.

However, the Astros aren’t like other teams. The Astros play to their scheme, not the hype. If teams like the Yankees want to pay a 35-year old Correa north of $30 Million, they’re free to do so. Astros owner Jim Crane knows better than that and so does General Manager James Click who’s shown time and time that he trusts the Astros development system. What does the farm have in store?

Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena is the top candidate for replacing Correa should the Astros not spend on another shortstop. Pena is touted as one of Houston’s top prospects. He slashed .217/.240/.522 in 15 games during Spring Training which is around-average but picked it up in Triple-A this season. His playing time was limited due to an injury but was impressive when he was on the field. Late in September, Pena went 4-5 against the Albuquerque Isotopes (the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate) with three homeruns (one inside-the-park and another being a walkoff). Pena ended the season slashing .287/.346/.598 in 30 triple-A games. The big leagues are a huge jump from any other level so Pena won’t be a perfect replacement for Correa but if it means also having more payroll space when Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez hit free agency, Pena will suffice.

Estimated Time of Arrival: 2022

Pedro Leon

Pedro Leon is a much different story. Astros fans are excited for Leon but they’ll need to be patient. Leon signed with the Astros last year in international free agency. Leon entered the Astros as the seventh-ranked international free agent of his class and many were hoping to see him soon but he’s more-than-likely years from playing in the big league level in the regular season. Like Pena, Leon also dealt with injuries this year but unlike Pena, Leon didn’t impress as much during his time on the field. When Leon impressed, it was in double-A where he spent a majority of 2021 slashing .249/.359/.443. However, when Leon faced higher competition, his numbers decreased. In 17 games at triple-A, he slashed .131/.293/.164. It’s Leon’s first year under an MLB system and 17 games aren’t a cause for concern but it’s safe to say, you won’t be seeing him outside of Spring Training anytime soon.

Side note: One concern I have for Leon is his strikeout rate. He struck out 30.9% of the time in 52 double-A games this year and 30.7% of the time in triple-A. The Astros boasted the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball this season and it’s contributed greatly to their success. If Leon wants to be an Astro, he may need to work on excising the Yankee side of him that strikes out so often.

Estimated Time of Arrival: 2025

Korey Lee

Korey Lee went to a fine school. His numbers, on the other hand, weren’t as fine. Lee drew a lot of hype after a strong start to his double-A career and to this day is still anticipated as the future behind the dish for the Astros. Lee did remarkably well in Advanced-A and was an average hitter in double-A posting a 100 wRC+. He even made his way all the way to Sugarland for nine games at triple-A where he went 8-35 before the season ended. Like Leon, it’ll be a while before Lee enters the big leagues but Click already extended Martin Maldonado’s contract early in the season so whether you like it or not, Maldonado is the Astros’ catcher for a while as Lee continues to develop under the Astros’ development system.

Estimated Time of Arrival: 2024

Forrest Whitley

Forrest Whitley seems to always be one step away from his major league debut but everytime he inches closer to that elusive debut, he falls back. In 2020, the Astros were thirsting for pitchers and Whitley had been thirsting for major league time for a while. Unfortunately a forearm strain kept him off the roster and he missed a golden opportunity. This year Whitley was yet again set on making his debut as all signs were pointing towards it in Spring Training. He looked a lot leaner than in previous years and he was ready for a taste of the big leagues. Suddenly, the signs flipped and started pointing to season-ending Tommy John surgery, closing another window for Whitley’s debut. Whitley will return next year and the reception will be different this time around. The former first-round pick was hyped up for years and he misses two golden opportunities because of things beyond his control. Yet, looking at his numbers, many wonder where the hype came from. Whitley averaged a 5.99 ERA across four levels in 2019. Ignoring the horrible season, Whitley’s peripherals have been good if not great but after missing a majority of the past two years due to injury, the expectations shouldn’t be too high, if at all, for the former first-rounder. That said, his time has come. He’s waited a long time for the season where he makes his debut and with the Astros struggling to muffle up some starting pitching, expect to see Whitley in orange next year.

Estimated Time of Arrival: 2022