Corey Seager: The Perfect Astro

By Gordon Liang

11/28/2021

When Gerrit Cole told the media he was an “affiliate of himself” after the 2019 World Series, he wasn’t lying. Once the World Series ends, so does the season and even though teams have five days of exclusive negotiations, players that aren’t signed for the next season are no longer on the team. The second Yuli Gurriel grounded out to end the 2021 World Series was the second that Carlos Correa was no longer an Astro. Since then the Houston Astros have been in the market for a shortstop, be it their clubhouse leader or a new presence.

The obvious choice is to keep Correa in the clubhouse. During the peak of the scandal, it was Correa that stood up and spoke out. In doing so, he became the face of the club and drew the backlash away from others and towards himself. When Yandy Diaz got upset at Framber Valdez, it was Correa who jumped in front and settled the tensions. Correa has established himself as the leader of the Astros but an exorbitant one at that. Having a career season finishing as a silver slugger finalist (he didn’t win despite leading American League Shortstops in wRC+), gold glove and platinum glove winner didn’t help his price.

The issue for Correa is length. He wants to get locked up on a long-term deal while the Astros under Jim Crane have yet to set a precedent for long-term commitments and don’t seem to be willing to. With Marcus Semien’s seven-year deal with the Texas Rangers all-but-softening Correa’s demand for a lengthy contract, it seems inevitable that Correa will find a team elsewhere that’ll meet his demands. The Astros will have to do the same.

Crane has shown that he’s willing to pay a high price for a shortstop, just not a long price. This opens up a slight possibility for Dodgers product Corey Seager. Seager is one of baseball’s best shortstops when healthy but a fractured hand may have hurt his chances of sealing a long-term deal. He’s still likely to get one but it’s understandable if clubs are less willing to offer a long-term contract.

Other than Seager being more likely to sign a not-so-long-term contract, he also fits the Astros because of his hit tendencies and lack of defensive abilities. If the goal for Seager this offseason is to get better, there’s no better team for him than the Houston Astros. Seager’s only real weakness is his defense and the Astros have a history of developing that. Correa won the gold and platinum glove this year but he wasn’t always an elite shortstop. In fact, he was a huge defensive liability just five years ago. Correa’s negative-18 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2016 ranked the lowest amongst all qualified shortstops but just two years later, he became one of the best defensive shortstops at plus-22 OAA and he hasn’t fallen below average ever since. Seager has never seen an OAA above plus-five but he’s shown some shimmers of potential. He was above average in both 2019 and 2020 with plus-four and plus-one OAA respectively in those years. He has the potential to be a solid defender at the very least and the Astros have just the coaching staff to bring him there.

As if Seager’s offense wasn’t scary enough, it’ll be even scarier if he comes to Houston. Minute Maid Park was essentially made just for him. In today’s era of baseball, it’s uncommon for a player to be opposite-field heavy but Seager is just that. A huge portion of Seager’s fly-balls go opposite field. Minute Maid Park is notorious for having a short leftfield, perfect for Seager.

BaseballSavant projects that if all of Seager’s games were in Minute Maid Park, he’d have 82 homeruns from 2019-2021. That’s a huge jump from his actual total of 60 homeruns in that span. It’s hard to imagine a better offensive version of “Corey Seager” but if he played half of his games in Houston, he’d be exactly that. Seager will be the most complete shortstop in baseball should he choose to play for the Astros and will be an improvement from Correa. It’s the perfect symbiosis waiting to happen and if it weren’t for the cheating scandal, it’s hard to imagine the Astros not being the favorite for Seager.